Five factors to affect Russia
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on, five essentials will exert great influence on the development of the conflict in 2024, namely Russian and U.S. presidential elections, Western assistance, the prospect of peace talks, Black Sea situation and Western sanctions against Russia, said a Chinese scholar.
Despite signs of fatigue in the U.S. and Western aid to Ukraine, this conflict will be prolonged, said Sun Zhuangzhi, director of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,at a seminar on major international issues held recently in Beijing.
The ongoing Ukraine crisis will enter its third year in late February this year ahead of the upcoming of Russian and U.S. presidential elections scheduled for March and November respectively.
Noting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict itself is a tragedy caused by the geopolitical games among great powers and the result of the confrontation between the U.S. and Russia, Sun believed the domestic political trends of the two countries will determine the development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Sun noted that Western assistance is another factor to affect the conflict. He explained that Ukraine is in dire straits right now, with nearly half of its fiscal expenditures having to be paid by the West. With the decreasing assistance from the Western countries, Ukraine has no choice but to depend on itself to find a way out.
Speaking of the peace talks, Sun noted that although Ukraine and Russia carried out their largest prisoner swap since February 2022 on January 3, the crisis is still escalating, which means the prospects of peace talks are still bleak.
Underscoring the important role of Black Sea situation, Sun said that the Black Sea region will become the focus of competition between Russia and Ukraine in 2024.
The last factor lies in the sanctions against Russia. In Sun's view, the West has fewer sanction options. On the one hand, it hopes to weaken and hit Russia as much as possible, but on the other hand, the trump cards it could play are increasingly limited, Sun added.
Besides these factors, Sun said both Russia and the West regarded the conflict as a war around the Europe, adding that they are reluctant to see the conflict get out of control, otherwise no one can bear the consequences.
The seminar, held by Xinhuanet annually, gathered together renowned scholars and experts of international relations to engage in vibrant and in-depth discussions on global issues.
Related articles
Former NSA worker gets nearly 22 years in prison for selling secrets to undercover FBI agent
DENVER (AP) — A former National Security Agency employee who sold classified information to an under2024-04-30- Madonna shared a heartwarming behind-the-scenes album of her with her four younger children during h2024-04-30
Buffalo Bills make 2 deals to trade out of 1st round of NFL draft. Open 2nd round with first pick
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) — Unable to find a trade partner to move up in the NFL draft order and fill2024-04-30Dua Lipa looks smitten with boyfriend Callum Turner as they arrive to dinner in NYC holding hands
Dua Lipa looked smitten with boyfriend Callum Turner as they grabbed dinner in New York City after t2024-04-30Chinese military ready to boost ties with Indonesian counterpart: defense spokesperson
The Chinese military is willing to work with its Indonesian counterpart to further consolidate strat2024-04-30Why they call Ryan Giggs 'the Welsh Wanderer': Football ace had eight
In the beautiful game, he won it all, but it when it comes to love, he's had more losers than winner2024-04-30
atest comment